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18.09.2015
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ountry Risk Barometer Q3 2015

For the fourth consecutive year, global growth will fail to exceed 3%. At the beginning of the year however, this target did not appear unattainable, as the highly expansionary monetary policies in place, combined with the fall in the oil price and less restrictive fiscal policies, were expected to effectively accelerate growth. But this was not the case. Who is at fault? Chiefly the emerging markets, with Russia and Brazil in deep recession, and with growth slowing down more rapidly than expected in China, while failing to take off in South Africa or in Turkey.

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16.09.2015
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Gulf countries: various reactions to the same shock

What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.

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09.09.2015
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Latin America - Activity in the region still decelerating

Growth in Latin America has been slowing down since 2011, and was estimated at 1.2 % in 2014 . This lacklustre result, caused by weak domestic fundamentals, were exacerbated by cyclical factors such as the decline of commodity prices - and particularly the plunge in oil prices experienced since the second half of 2014.

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06.09.2015
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Company insolvencies in Western Europe: slight lull being confirmed for 2015

In this first overview of company insolvencies in Europe, Coface examines the following question: Was the return to growth observed in Europe strong enough to bring about a lasting reduction in business failures? For 10 out of the 12 Western European countries studied, the answer is «yes».

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22.07.2015
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Automotive Sector Central Europe

The CEE region has become an attractive destination for investments by global car manufacturers. In 2014, 3.6 million vehicles were produced in Eastern Europe, equating to 21% of total EU production. In the CEE countries covered by Coface´s analysis there are 33 car factories, most of which were created by foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The analysis shows that despite high dynamics of car sales generated by local clients recently, CEE factories remain highly dependent on foreign demand.

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26.05.2015
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End of european milk quotas: a new era for the french dairy sector

This publication is only available in english. Since the introduction of milk quotas in 1984, until their effective ending in 2015, milk production has undergone many reforms.

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26.05.2015
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France: Insolvencies barometer April 2015

This publication is only available in English. This barometer sets out the latest trends for company insolvencies for the first four months of 2015 in France. After a 2.9% fall recorded for 2014, a level not observed since 2010 (-3.8%), the first four months of the year were marked by a rebound in insolvencies.

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29.04.2015
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Some key indicators from the survey revealed signs of a slight deterioration

This publication is only available in english. Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2014, the survey was conducted in 8 economies – Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, as well as, for the first time, Thailand. The study revealed some key indicators that showed signs of a (...)

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23.03.2015
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Panorama Overview of Czech Republic

The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with (...)

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16.03.2015
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Company insolvency trends in Brazil

Ongoing economic scenario in Brazil remains sensitive, Coface expects GDP to break even in 2014 and activity should contract by 0.5% in 2015. Industry dropped by 3.2% in 2014 and will probably record another negative year in 2015. The year has just started, but it may reserve some negative surprises.

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09.03.2015
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Panorama China Payment Survey

Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respond-ents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014 (...)

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19.01.2015
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Panorama Turkey: Insolvencies

This Panorama is available only in English.

Disclosure of the exit strategy by FEDChairman Ben Bernanke in May 2013 triggered a new period marked by a change in the risk perception towards developing economies in financial markets. Turkey entered this period with a high current accounts deficit, a production sector substantially dependent on imports and three successive elections.

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19.01.2015
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Middle East and North Africa Panorama: What progress after the arab spring?

This publication is available only in English
How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the so-called "Arab Spring" late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries?

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06.11.2014
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Panorama Poland insolvencies

Poland is a headline example of the country that didn’t record recession in recent years. However, in micro terms companies insolvencies have been on...

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23.05.2014
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Changes regarding SMEs in France and Spain – Insolvency Barometer in France

New barometer of companies insolvencies in France : a lull is observed from January to April 2014, the number of insolvencies falling by 2.3%. This barometer is followed by a comparison between the situation
of SMEs in France and Spain.

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25.04.2014
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Electronics in Asia / Sector Barometer

Focus on the electronics industry in Emerging Asia, a region that has become in a matter of years the world’s workshop for many electronic components.

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06.03.2014
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Reality Check: Corporate Payment Trend and Sectorial Risk in China

The overall payment experience in China has deteriorated in 2013 compared to 2012.

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28.01.2014
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Panorama China : What to expect in 2014

A broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. But in the near-term, potential negative impacts on the real economy as a result of the reform effort and credit risks associated with the rising cost of fund have to be watched out for.

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17.12.2013
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Textiles - Upmarket positioning and innovation: Key to the success for the French and European textile industry?

You will find in it our usual barometer, which assesses the risks to which companies in fourteen key industrial sectors in emerging Asia, North America and Western Europe are exposed.
We have also included an analytical focus on European textiles. This traditional industry was affected very early by globalisation, and, in particular, competition from developing countries.

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21.11.2013
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Insolvencies in the construction sector in France: breaking all dangers

In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyzes the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to it weight in the economy.

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14.10.2013
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Should we stake everything on the Asian consumer?

This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. How big is the rise in household consumption in this region? Have Asian households taken on too much debt? What are the specific consumer behaviour patterns in Asia? Which sectors are benefitting most from this expansion of consumption?

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26.09.2013
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Carmakers: Europe refocusing on emerging markets

This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator. In Europe, sector risks continue to deteriorate, especially in chemicals due to the remaining difficulties in the European industry, and also in the pharmaceutical branch due to the fiscal tightening measures taken by the governments.

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15.07.2013
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Brazil's economy: Worrying weaknesses?

Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?

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20.06.2013
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What has happened to the Italian business model?

This panorama contains a study of the Italian economy, which analyses and interrogates both macro- and microeconomic issues. We also present the latest adjustments to our country assessment.

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04.06.2013
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Central European companies in crisis: why?

This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.

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18.04.2013
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Focus e-commerce / distribution

Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors. The originality of the analysis is that it is based on aggregating the accounts of 6,000 companies in three of the world’s major regions: the European Union, North America and Emerging Asia.

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20.03.2013
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Transformation of emerging country risk

In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.

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07.02.2013
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2013 Coface Country Risk Conference

The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.

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10.12.2012
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Switzerland: economy is bending

Investors have made it one of their favourite havens during this period of recurrent crises, from global finance to sovereign debt in the eurozone. Proverbial political stability, sound management of public finances, a complex but attractive tax system, many very innovative small businesses and a flexible labour market. Not forgetting, of course, a renowned financial market, making it a major player on the international scene in wealth management activities. These are strengths which sometimes turn into weaknesses.

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03.12.2012
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Focus : The world's steel

The "Panorama Sectors", a new quarterly publication of Coface, focuses on the sector risks in the world.

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18.10.2012
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India: Economic slowdown

The Indian economic engine is sputtering but continues to run: it suffers from persistent bottlenecks that the country and its companies have to contend in order to grow.

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18.10.2012
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United States: SMEs the backbone of the economy?

When public sector job creation runs out of steam, eyes turn to the private sector, which alone seems able to offer a solid basis for recovery in the months to come through investment and the hiring of workers.

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15.10.2012
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Updates and growth forecasts

The global economic slowdown is confirmed this fall, in line with the recession in the eurozone and the emerging market deceleration.

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11.10.2012
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Why are there less companies insolvencies in Germany?

Although the overall number of insolvencies continues to decline (-1.8% between September 2011 and August 2012), the summer of 2012 confirms the trend that began last Spring with an important growth in their cost (+17%) and a correlative increase in unemployment (+3.3%). The barometer presented in this panorama analyses this development, principally caused by the difficulties of larger French companies. A list is also given of the riskier sectors, those where risks are deteriorating and those which have been relatively spared.

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11.10.2012
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Why are there less companies insolvencies in Germany?

Although the overall number of insolvencies continues to decline (-1.8% between September 2011 and August 2012), the summer of 2012 confirms the trend that began last Spring with an important growth in their cost (+17%) and a correlative increase in unemployment (+3.3%). The barometer presented in this panorama analyses this development, principally caused by the difficulties of larger French companies. A list is also given of the riskier sectors, those where risks are deteriorating and those which have been relatively spared.

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09.08.2012
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Feature: United States / Focus on Asia

The United States remains the planet’s leading economic power. As evidence, one need only consider the simple fact that the US consumer accounts for 70% of the US economy and 18% of global GDP. The economic spotlights are therefore focused for very good reasons on rising petrol prices, falling housing prices, unemployment and unequal profit distribution, all of which undermine household confidence. The outcome of the political debate between the Republicans and Democrats over the US budget and national debt as well as the Fed’s orientation and monetary policy as from July are therefore also under close scrutiny.

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05.07.2012
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Country risk overview - Summer 2012

In Southern Europe, the recession is deepening, particularly in Spain, Italy and Cyprus. Coface is forecasting a recession rate of 2%, 1.8% and 1.3% in these countries respectively in 2012. Another source of concern is the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, which is now affecting growth in emerging countries, where Coface has noted a slowdown in activity.

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04.06.2012
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Morocco: 2012, a challenge year

The «Arab Spring» was rather mild in Morocco, compared with what is still going on in other countries in the region. This results from the role of the king, the Commander of the faithful, but also from the fact that leaders in Morocco have attempted to anticipate the rise of unrest and discontent.
Today, the country has a true asset with its manageable external indebtedness and its solid and dynamic banking sector.However, despite true economic and social progress, and despite the benefits that it derives from phosphates, tourism and better infrastructures, Morocco remains a rural, poor and insufficiently diversified country.

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05.04.2012
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Country Risk Overview - Spring 2012

Greece quitting the eurozone would be disastrous. But this long unthinkable scenario cannot be discounted. Even though its likelihood remains below 50%, policymakers cannot afford to sweep it under the rug considering the severity of the Greek financial and economic crisis and the difficulty of implementing unavoidable reforms. This article draws lessons from the financial crises in Russia (1998) and Argentina (2001/2002) in exploring the likely advantages and disadvantages for Greece of withdrawing from the eurozone. What then would be the risk of propagation to the peripheral countries and the consequences for the eurozone as a whole?

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08.03.2012
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main lessons drawn from the Coface Country Risk Conference 2012 in Paris

Like at the beginning of each year, Coface organized its 16th conference in Paris on 16 January 2012, which has become the flagship event in the field of country risk, one of its main areas of expertise. An exercise, particularly challenging for 2012.

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10.11.2011
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Special report: Italy / Credit insurance

Italy’s economy – the third-largest in the euro zone – is well diversified. Yet the country is currently at the centre of the debt crisis plaguing the single currency zone. Of course, many of the economy’s fundamentals appear sound. The budget deficit did not deteriorate significantly during the crisis, the growth in industrial added-value and a niche strategy help to limit the trade deficit, and household indebtedness is relatively low. But the deterioration in the country’s economic growth potential due to structural weaknesses and the crushing weight of the public-sector debt in a very uncertain international environment are all cause for concern. Given the vast size of this debt and the fact that it is widely held by the European banking sectors, a default by the Italian government would have incalculable consequences on the euro zone’s future. However, the recent formation of a government of experts led by Mario Monti, an economist and former European Commissioner, provides some reassurance of rigour which is a step in the right direction.

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03.11.2011
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Agrofood industry

After their surge in 2007/2008, prices for farm raw materials began to soar again in June 2010, affecting foodstuff prices worldwide with particularly sharp increases in emerging countries. No other asset class registered jumps in prices as spectacular as those recorded by some farm raw materials with grain prices skyrocketing 36% year-on-year through August. Sugar prices also soared, up 50%. Prices for meat (beef, mutton, chicken) and dairy products rose over 15%. The price increase for rice was more modest with that commodity not traded on the futures market and only a small fraction of its production traded internationally.

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06.10.2011
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Country Risk Overview - October 2011

Disappointing growth figures for the second quarter of 2011, political tensions in the United States this summer around the question of the debt ceiling and the loss of its triple-A rating, the never-ending sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, the persistent lack of confidence on the financial markets, tensions on the money market and the vertiginous fall of bank share prices: So many negative signals that are likely to affect the global recovery observed since mid-2009. Global growth in 2011 will settle at 3.2%, representing a slowdown of 1.1 point of GDP compared to 2010.

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07.07.2011
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Country Risk Overview - July 2011

Global 2011 growth now stands at 3.3% against 3.2% in March. Growth forecasts for industrialised countries are almost unchanged at the projected 1.8%, a net slowdown compared to the 2.5% increase recorded in 2010.

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07.04.2011
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Country Risk Overview - April 2011

Various events that marked the first quarter 2011 prompted us to revise our world growth forecast for the year, down from 3.4% to 3.2%. And based on virtually finalized data for the fourth quarter 2010, world growth for 2010 comes to 4.2%.

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10.02.2011
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Main lessons from the 2011 Country Risk Conference held in Paris

Worldwide growth should be robust in 2011. But how can we analyse its driving forces and risks? Between the United States, where the recovery is hiding the weaknesses of an economic model that is overly based on debt, Europe, weakened by its heavy public debt and eroded competitiveness, and the emerging countries whose dynamism is continuing but needs to find new balances, decision-makers more than ever need reliable decryption and analyses to find their way.

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24.01.2011
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Global Construction: Substantial Geographic Differences, High Sensivity to Economic conditions, Permanent Credit Risk

The global construction sector is a kaleidoscope of diversity with substantial differences between countries and even between the regions of a given country.The sensitivity to changes in economic conditions also varies widely. In general,payment incidents involving actors in the sector are not uncommon. This surveyis intended to enable international trade actors to gain an awareness of the risksand opportunities that characterise this market.

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