All Coface Publications
Turkey’s economy experienced several shocks during 2015 and 2016. Heightened political uncertainties, regional tensions, the US rate hike process, the credit rating downgrade and domestic security issues, have all resulted in (...)Read More
Brazil: a country in deep recession looks tentatively towards the first steps of the new government.Read More
Since 2003, Coface has been conducting annual surveys on business payment experience in China. In 2015, the average credit termes offered by China-based firms decreased again, reflecting a more prudent approach to granting credit facilities to customers. the overall payment experience in China deteriorated and remained very challenging in 2015.Read More
After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The return of Iran should have an effect on international growth through the oïl channel but above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself. International sanctions have impacted the Iranian economy. Two consecutive years of negative growth and runaway inflation have tested Iran’s resistance model to its limit. The lifting of the EU embargo will allow Iran to revive its oil sector and return to the global market. The country is perceived as a new Eldorado, with its 78 million potential consumers.Read More
The German economy has changed its growth model during recent years. While internal demand (especially private consumption) – was sluggish and weak throughout most of the 2000s, it is currently the (...)Read More
During the China-Celac Forum, held at the beginning of last year, China announced its intention to increase its investment stock in Latin America to 250 billion USD within the next ten years and to attain an annual trade flow of 500 billion USD during the same period. China also outlined the building of a "1+3+6" cooperation framework with Latin America. "1" would refer to one plan, "3" to the three engines of trade, investment and financial cooperation and "6" to six fields of industry connections to be strengthened as priorities between China and Latin America (notably energy and resources, construction of infrastructures, agriculture, manufacturing, scientific and technological innovations and information technologies).Read More
After US households in 2007-2008 and Eurozone states in 2011-2012, emerging countries are now getting their turn at the epicentre of the storm, in part because of excessive debt. How did that happen? Growth cut in half in the emerging world between 2010 and 2015, highly expansionary monetary policies after the Lehman Brothers crisis, and the drop in commodity prices since mid-2014 are all part of the answer.Read More
During 2015, Turkey’s economy faced several challenges.
On the political scene, the country went through two elections in 2015, bring to four the number of elections over the last two years. After talks to form a coalition government fell through following the June 7 general election, the country returned to the polls on November 1. The combination of greater political uncertainty, security issues and global economic worries caused a sharp depreciation in the lira, which hit its alltime weakest level against the dollar in September.
Retail trade benefits from good prospects of consumer demand which, however, will not eliminate challenges for the sector including an intense competition and the implementation of new levy for retailers. Foreign chains will remain dominant taking an advantage of their large-scale bargaining position and offering the most attractive prices for consumers even despite being charged by the new tax.Read More
Tenuous but confirmed. These are the terms that best describe France’s current growth - as illustrated by the figures for the third quarter, published in early November. Household consumption has increased, even if only modestly, due to gains in purchasing power as a result of almost zero inflation and despite the ever-rising unemployment rate. Corporate investment has also risen, but at a less rapid rate than the majority of France's neighbours and at a slower pace than has been historically observed during phases of economic recovery. External support from reduced oil prices and government measures, such as the Tax Credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE) , are also helping to restore company margins.Read More
Brazil has grown over the last decade, as a result of the boom in commodity prices and strong household consumption. The country endured the 2008-2009 crisis, thanks to liquidity injections from public banks.Read More
The increased economic activity in Poland already reached levels required to stabilise the number of company insolvencies. The current global economic situation could be summarised as a gradual recovery for advanced economies and turbulent times for emerging countries. This would not appear to be the case for the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe which, in most cases, are on an improving track. Poland is outperforming this regional group.Read More
Despite competition from China and the end of subsidies, the revival of the European photovoltaic industry seems likely.
Although photovoltaics only accounts for 5.3% of total electricity consumption in Europe, this sector has benefited from worldwide momentum in favour of "greener" energy consumption. Between 2004 and 2012 European electricity from photovoltaics increased sharply, from 0.7 to 62.4 billion KWh. This growth was driven by Germany, Spain and Italy, where 80% of Europe's photovoltaic facilities were located. The sudden expansion of photovoltaics was made possible by favourable government policies (a system of renewable purchase obligations and subsidies), plus the sharp and continued drop in the price of installations, intensified by Chinese competition. Europe led the field at that time, accounting for 75% of worldwide production in 2012.